The tropical cyclone outlook for 2023/2024 predicts that Samoa, a nation in the South Pacific, will likely experience at least one tropical cyclone event in the period from November to April next year. While cyclones occur rarely in Samoa, averaging about once per year, the most affected regions are Palauli, Vaisigano, and Gagaifomauga.
The typical cyclone season coincides with the summer monsoon, with the most severe storms occurring in the months before May to June and after October to November.
In the past, Samoa has been affected by the foothills of several cyclones, but in the past 12 months, no cyclone has reached the inhabited areas on land.
The prediction is, that Samoa will also face other natural hazards, including tsunamis. The upcoming cyclone season is expected to emulate past cyclone seasons that had similar background climate conditions to the present. The analog seasons also have out-of-season cyclones, thus season cyclones are also possible this season.
The La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been well-established in the Pacific since October. La Nina typically provides more rainfall than usual for Samoa.
Therefore, above-average rainfall is favored for Samoa in the coming season, which could potentially increase the risk of landslides and river flooding.
The Samoa Meteorology Division will continue to closely monitor the change in the climate system and advise accordingly. All communities are urged to remain vigilant, be alert and prepared throughout the 2023/24 cyclone season, and heed cyclone alerts, warnings, and advisories whenever issued to reduce the loss of life and damage to property.
Tropical cyclones are associated with torrential rainfall, flash flooding, flooding of low-lying areas, coastal flooding, storm surges, water spouts, and strong to damaging winds.
